Opinion polls in Israel tell us many things, but they do not tell the whole story. Sometimes Netanyahu’s bloc appears close to returning to power. At other times, the “change” bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot moves ahead. 

But behind these changing numbers lies a more important reality: neither Netanyahu nor his opponents have an easy path to forming a government. This is where the crisis begins.

But behind these changing numbers lies a more important reality: neither Netanyahu nor his opponents have an easy path to forming a government. This is where the crisis begins.

The problem is not just the number of seats. It is who can turn those seats into a government. Netanyahu knows that his bloc may not reach 61 seats. So his goal is no longer simply to win a clear majority. It is also to stop his opponents from building a majority that can govern. In other words, if he cannot govern, he wants to make sure that others cannot govern either.

This is the real political game.

Polls only offer a picture of the moment, but they cannot decide the final result. Some small parties are close to the minimum share of votes needed to enter parliament. If they cross that threshold, they may add several seats to Netanyahu’s bloc. If they fail, their votes will not translate into seats, changing the whole calculation. This makes figures such as Ofer Winter and smaller right-wing lists part of a wider struggle: will they enter parliament or fall short? And will they help Netanyahu or hurt him?

Netanyahu understands these details well. He manages the right like a chessboard. He wants to weaken rivals within his own camp, but he does not want their votes to go to waste. He wants to limit Ben-Gvir’s growing influence, but he does not want the right to lose valuable seats. He may attack certain figures today, then need them tomorrow to stop the change bloc from forming a government.

These are not ordinary elections. They are a battle for Netanyahu’s political survival.

But the........

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