If there is one thing that now appears irreversible, it is that Iran did not lose this war and that the United States and Israel have collectively looked irrational and overconfident in their predictions. The assumption that overwhelming military pressure would quickly subdue Tehran has not materialised. Instead, the conflict has exposed the limits of American coercive power in West Asia and revealed the dangers of strategic arrogance dressed up as certainty. It increasingly appears that Washington’s room for manoeuvre is constrained by Benjamin Netanyahu’s escalation strategy and the influence of the pro-Israel lobby within American politics. 

For decades, Washington relied on military superiority, sanctions, diplomatic intimidation, and regional alliances to discipline adversaries into submission. Iran, however, neither collapsed internally nor retreated strategically. Tehran demonstrated that it possesses the ability to absorb punishment while retaining retaliatory capacity through missiles, regional alliances, proxy networks, and the strategic leverage associated with the Strait of Hormuz. This does not diminish the severe economic and human costs borne by ordinary Iranians under prolonged confrontation and sanctions.

The image of invincibility that Washington cultivated since the end of the Cold War now stands visibly weakened. Iran demonstrated greater strategic resilience than Washington and Tel Aviv appear to have anticipated.

The image of invincibility that Washington cultivated since the end of the Cold War now stands visibly weakened. Iran demonstrated greater strategic resilience than Washington and Tel Aviv appear to have anticipated.

Washington would almost certainly have explored backchannel pressure through actors such as China and Gulf intermediaries to prevent further escalation around the Strait of Hormuz. 

The primary face-saving strategy available to Donald Trump is to declare victory by claiming that American military operations, including targeted strikes, achieved their intended objectives. Such an approach allows him to frame the end of the conflict as a calculated success rather than a retreat. Trump is likely to follow a familiar political pattern: loudly proclaiming success while simultaneously moving toward hurried negotiations behind the scenes. His administration will attempt to present the outcome to his political base as proof of strong leadership, even if critics........

© Middle East Monitor