Two months. That’s how long the Makkah pact has existed, and already it’s being asked to do the thing pacts are least ready for in their early days: handle a real war.

On Sunday, Yemen’s internationally recognised government said it was launching a campaign to retake all Houthi-held territory. The Houthis claimed missile and drone strikes on Aramco sites in Riyadh and Khurais within hours. The pact’s strategic political and defence committee was already due to meet in Riyadh on 5 October, with Türkiye’s foreign and defence ministers flying in. Nobody planned that timing, but it couldn’t be sharper. The ministers aren’t just asking whether the alliance can deter an attack. They need to agree where their response ends.

Same waters, different traffic

I’d avoid calling Hormuz “closed” these days, because the numbers don’t support it. Kpler data reported by CNBC put combined crude and refined-product flows at 14.2 million barrels a day, roughly 80 per cent of the pre-war level. Crude on its own is back near normal. Still, a good week of tanker data doesn’t make the strait safe, and anyone who has watched insurers react to a single drone strike knows how fast confidence can leave.

Saudi Arabia’s second outlet is working again too. Riyadh restarted the East-West pipeline and resumed loadings at Yanbu, though volumes sit below what they were before the attacks. Here geography helps a little. Oil going north from Yanbu to Suez never comes near Bab al-Mandab. Oil going south to Asian buyers has to. And that southern route has taken a beating: the same report shows Bab al-Mandab flows more than halving between August and September, which pushed more Saudi crude back through Hormuz. The Houthis, meanwhile, now hold virtually the whole Red Sea coastline of Yemen. Owning a coastline doesn’t mean they decide which ships get through, but shipowners aren’t going to wait to find out.

So the real danger is uncertainty. A tanker may well sail. Whether its........

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