The 60-day window created by the Islamabad Memorandum expired on Monday with no permanent agreement between the United States and Iran.

The 14-point framework, brokered principally by Pakistan with Qatar’s involvement, was signed on 17 June in an attempt to convert a fragile ceasefire into something durable. It covered the war’s end, Iran’s nuclear programme, sanctions, frozen assets, the US naval blockade and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Both sides had 60 days to reach final terms.

Those 60 days are gone. Iran now says it is shifting to a “fully offensive” posture. Washington has ruled out an extension. Tehran says Hormuz stays shut until the US lifts its blockade, ends oil sanctions, releases frozen assets and halts military pressure. Brent crude is back above $90 a barrel, and another commercial vessel was struck near the strait this week.

It would be easy to file this as one more US-Iran negotiation collapsing under the usual weight. But the timeline raises a sharper question: did something change inside Tehran’s power structure while these talks were underway — and did that change do more to kill the deal than anything Washington did?

A leader who inherited power through assassination

Mojtaba Khamenei did not become Supreme Leader through succession planning. His father, Ali Khamenei, was killed on 28 February in a joint US-Israeli strike that also killed other family members. Mojtaba was injured in the same attack and named successor on 8 March, while Iran was still under bombardment.

That origin matters more than most Western coverage of this story acknowledges. Iran’s current negotiating posture cannot be separated from the fact that its head of state took office because a foreign strike killed his father. Reuters reported in April, citing people close to his circle, that Mojtaba suffered........

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