For more than a decade, Yemen has been viewed primarily through the lens of a proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Tehran’s support for the Houthi movement and the Saudi-led military intervention launched in 2015 transformed the country into one of the Middle East’s most visible arenas of geopolitical competition. The conflict came to symbolize a broader struggle for regional influence between two rival powers seeking to shape the political order of the Arab world.

That interpretation remains relevant, but it is increasingly insufficient. While the Houthis continue to dominate much of northern Yemen and Iran remains an important player, the dynamics shaping the country’s future are changing. A new competition is emerging within the Gulf itself, and Yemen has become one of its principal battlegrounds.

Today, the central contest is no longer solely between Saudi Arabia and Iran. It increasingly involves Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), two states that once stood side by side in the same military coalition but now pursue different visions for Yemen’s future.

The shift is significant because it reflects a broader transformation in Middle Eastern politics. Regional competition is no longer driven only by ideological divides, sectarian narratives, or traditional rivalries. It is increasingly shaped by economic interests, maritime security, trade routes, and competing ambitions for regional leadership.

When Saudi Arabia assembled a coalition to restore the internationally recognised government in 2015, the UAE emerged as one of its most active and capable partners. Both governments shared a common objective: rolling back Houthi advances and preventing what they viewed as expanding Iranian influence on the Arabian Peninsula.

For years, this partnership appeared remarkably solid. Yet beneath the surface, important differences were already emerging.

Saudi Arabia has long viewed Yemen through the prism of national security. The Kingdom shares an extensive border with Yemen and has repeatedly experienced the consequences of instability emanating from its southern neighbour. Riyadh’s preferred outcome has therefore been relatively straightforward: a stable and unified Yemeni state capable of maintaining order while remaining within Saudi Arabia’s strategic........

© Middle East Monitor