The United Arab Emirates’ decision to leave OPEC is not just a rupture in oil diplomacy. It is a signal that the old architecture of energy coordination—built on production quotas and cartel discipline—is giving way to something looser, more competitive, and potentially more volatile.

For Indonesia, the implications are immediate. But so is the opportunity.

Effective 1st May 2026, the UAE exited OPEC after nearly six decades, citing national interest and a reassessment of its production strategy. The move frees Abu Dhabi from output quotas that had constrained its ability to monetize expanded production capacity. It also reflects deeper tensions within the group—particularly with Saudi Arabia—and the disruptive effects of regional conflict, including the war involving Iran and instability in the Strait of Hormuz. 

The result is a weaker OPEC and a more fragmented global oil market. Analysts expect that, outside the cartel, the UAE will have both the incentive and the capacity to increase production, raising questions about who—if anyone—will stabilise supply in the years ahead.

The result is a weaker OPEC and a more fragmented global oil market. Analysts expect that, outside the cartel, the UAE will have both the incentive and the capacity to increase production, raising questions about who—if anyone—will stabilise supply in the years ahead.

This matters for Indonesia. Like many emerging economies, it remains exposed to swings in global energy prices and supply disruptions. Indonesian officials have already acknowledged that the........

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