There is a particular kind of instability that does not announce itself with declarations of war but rather advances in increments; each actor convinced it is still in control; each escalation framed as restraint. That is where West Asia now finds itself.

The latest turn has come with the Houthis' movement widening the theatre, launching missiles toward Israel and reopening the Red Sea axis. On its own, that does not decide the war, but it does alter its geometry.

When one front sits astride the Bab el Mandeb, and another threatens the Strait of Hormuz, the conflict stops being local. It becomes systemic. This is the point at which comforting narratives collapse. It is no longer sufficient to speak of Israel and Iran as if they are the only principals. Nor is it useful to pretend that diplomacy is simply waiting in the wings, ready to resume once tempers cool.

Also Read: When history is edited: Rethinking Iran's story

The uncomfortable truth is that diplomacy has repeatedly been brought to the edge of resolution, only to be pushed back into the shadows. There was a functioning framework once. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, negotiated under Barack Obama, placed verifiable limits on Iran's nuclear programme. It was by no means perfect, but it certainly was enforceable.

That framework was dismantled in 2018 by Donald Trump, who unilaterally withdrew the United States. The result was predictable; Iran resumed enrichment, mistrust deepened, and the space for negotiated restraint narrowed. What followed has been a pattern.

Each time talks appear to gather momentum, events intervene. The recent Oman channel was one such instance. Omani mediation was not theatrical. It was substantive. Signals emerged that Iran was willing to scale back enrichment in return for sanctions relief. The window was narrow, but it was real. And yet, once again, escalation overtook diplomacy.

This is where Benjamin Netanyahu's role becomes central. It is tempting to describe Israel's posture as doctrinal, as a matter of strategic culture that favours pre-emption. That is only part of the........

© Mathrubhumi English