The battle for Liverpool Council has begun after Aigburth by-election

David Humphreys analyses the Green Party's win in Aigburth and what it means for next year's all-out ballots

Liverpool Town Hall's make up could look a lot different next year

By-elections tend not to be the most exciting events. You can usually tell by the turn out.

To all intents and purposes, a mid-term election in Aigburth for a city council seat isn’t a hotbed of political action either. However, last night’s victory for the Greens, a gain from the Liberal Democrats, may have just fired the starting gun on next year’s all out Liverpool Council elections.

In 2023, amid the fall-out from the Caller Report, the city moved to full member elections, as opposed to thirds at a time. It also reverted the council to the leader and cabinet model, moving away from the Mayoralty.

Three years ago, Labour extended its tenure as the ruling party on the local authority, with 2027 representing 17 years in control for the group. It will also be the first set of local elections with Labour in power in Westminster and Liverpool for almost 30 years.

This poses an interesting challenge for the party with voters likely to have the performance of Keir Starmer and his government in the back of their minds when it comes to casting their ballot for a city councillor. It has been interesting to see Liverpool Labour out on the defensive early on after the Green victory in Aigburth, claiming their third place finish wasn’t to do with their strategy or candidate, rather it wasn’t a traditional Labour seat.

Cllr Liam Robinson, leader of Liverpool Labour and the city council, and his deputy and cabinet members were all out on social media to point the finger at the second place finish of the Liberal Democrats as the real story. Cllr Harry Doyle was among those to air his views.

He said: “It was a solid Lib Dem seat until you jumped in bed with the Tories. Not a natural Labour seat at all. Only one party has lost a seat since 2023. It’s not Labour!

“The Lib Dems shouldn’t be losing their safe seats in Liverpool. The opposition is in tatters.”

Since 1980, the ward had been held by the Lib Dems and was retained by Dave Antrobus when it was reinstated in 2023. Last night, it flipped Green for the first time in its history.

Lib Dem insiders I spoke to during the election campaign were confident Labour would finish third but also expected to hold onto the seat. Cllr Carl Cashman, who leads the group on the city council, gave his reaction on social media this morning.

He told me he expects to run Liverpool next May and this result will no doubt cause a rethink for his group looking ahead to 2027. He posted: “Real leadership is about rising to big challenges and also learning from defeat with humility.

“It’s quite clear to me that Labour don’t possess that humility in Liverpool but liberals do. Firstly, it is important to congratulate Paul Ruddick and the Green Party for their victory.

“They benefited massively from national polling and their recent win in Gorton. There’s huge lessons there for my party nationally.

“We ran a slick operation and got our vote out but unfortunately external factors played a huge part in a local council by-election. The Greens pulled people in from outside and ran a good campaign.

“We went toe to toe in an exhausting but exciting campaign. Our amazing candidate, who concentrated on local issues that a council can actually fix, didn’t deserve to lose.

“I am grateful to him for flying the flag of liberalism and I sincerely hope he’ll be our candidate next time. Labour have been decimated in this election, getting 10% of the vote and coming third for the first time in Liverpool in a by-election (there’s no record of them ever coming third).

“It’s important to remember, the Labour Party aren’t our friends, particularly in places like Liverpool. They were smirking last night at the result despite coming third on 10% in a ward they held three years ago. They are finished here.”

The two main parties are already at each other’s throats which could be the discourse we see for the next 12 months, but what does it mean for the Green Party? Could they now capitalise on national success and build a strong profile in Liverpool?

To do so, they’ll need to make gains in the north of the city that have been traditional Labour strongholds, while also taking on the burgeoning Your Party, which could stand aside in certain seats. The group has tended to perform solidly in the south of the city but cannot expect to gain ground without expanding its presence.

The big stalking horse across the country is of course Reform. They are yet to make a dent in any city election as it stands, despite running close in some Parliamentary seats in 2024.

Their candidate Harry Gallimore-King came a distant fourth last night, having failed to win as a Green Party candidate in Anfield in 2019 before switching to the Conservatives two years later. He took fourth place with 54 voters for his party in last year’s Sefton Park by-election.

The real test for Reform will again be in the north where they will likely hope to steal a march on disaffected Labour voters come next May. Labour sources have said there are seats in which Nigel Farage’s party is getting a good hearing on the doorstep.

It is almost 30 years since a Conservative sat at Liverpool Council and Chris Hall didn’t show any signs of changing that last night as he came last with just eight votes. It may be 14 months away but reaction to 2026’s first by-election shows we are now hurtling towards the long run-in of next year’s all out elections. Strap in.

© Liverpool Echo