SYDNEY — Australia's real estate market in 2026 is displaying a stark "two-speed" dynamic, with booming price growth in Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide contrasting sharply with slower or declining values in Sydney and Melbourne, even as national dwelling prices continue to rise modestly amid persistent supply shortages and population-driven demand.

According to CoreLogic data released in early May, national home values increased 0.7% in March, bringing first-quarter growth to 2.1%. However, the divergence between cities has widened significantly. Perth led the surge with a remarkable 7.3% quarterly gain, followed by strong performances in Brisbane and Adelaide. In contrast, Melbourne recorded a 0.9% decline, while Sydney showed only marginal growth.

This uneven performance reflects differing local factors: Western Australia and Queensland are benefiting from strong mining and resource sectors, interstate migration, and relative affordability, while Australia's two largest cities grapple with higher interest rates, tighter lending standards and stretched affordability.

Commonwealth Bank senior economist Trent Saunders noted in April that the housing market has proven stronger than expected but warned that higher rates and new affordability pressures are expected to slow price growth over the next two years. CommBank forecasts national dwelling prices to rise around 5% this year and 3% in 2027, a clear easing from previous years.

ANZ Research echoed this view, predicting capital city prices will grow 2.8% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, signalling a softening market as higher borrowing costs weigh on demand. Despite the slowdown, supply constraints continue to underpin the........

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