When the Russian cruiser Moskva sank in 2022, Russia lost an asset worth $750m (£560m).

Losses like this had been rare – historically warships, tanks and aircraft took years to build and were difficult to destroy. Indeed, Moskva was the largest Russian warship to be sunk in action since the Second World War. But modern warfare is different.

Cheap, disposable systems now routinely destroy equipment worth hundreds or even thousands of times more. Moskva, for instance, was hit by Neptune missiles, costing around £1.5m each, a fraction of the warship’s worth. And Ukrainian FPV drones costing around $1,000 (£750) disable multi-million-dollar tanks, while Iranian-designed Shahed drones costing tens of thousands of dollars force defenders to expend interceptor missiles worth millions.

For expensive military assets, survivability itself has become a significant challenge. Constant drone surveillance means almost nothing can remain hidden for long. Once identified, attacks can follow within minutes using loitering munitions and AI-assisted targeting that never sleeps.

As a result, military advantage now depends less on building perfect equipment and more on improving it faster than an opponent can respond: a warfare version of survival of the fittest.

This dynamic is reflected in how Ukrainian commanders describe the war. Robert Brovdi, head of the Ukrainian military drone unit Madyar’s Birds, argues: “A blitzkrieg is now impossible… if Russia had a million tanks and tried to seize Kyiv again… two million drones would swarm over them.”

Because it is starting from a lower GDP, fewer........

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