Donald Trump is offering Ukraine what many people are saying is the world’s worst peace deal.

The deal on offer, seemingly covered in Russian fingerprints, is a bad deal for Ukraine. It cedes large swathes of Ukrainian land – both territory Russia has captured and that it doesn’t yet have, such as western Donetsk. It leaves Ukraine highly vulnerable to a Russian return in future, a limit on its armed forces of 600,000 troops (it currently has an army of around 900,000), the loss of the “Fortress Belt” Russia has been unable to capture, and no foreign troops on its soil or NATO membership or NATO troops on its soil.

And all this in exchange for a weak Russian commitment that “it is expected not [to] invade neighbouring countries”. If you think that sounds like entry-level stakes for a country on the UN Security Council and a former G8 member, you’d be right. Sadly, this isn’t close to being enough – Russia broke similar agreements made in 1994 and 2014-15. Ukraine has learned the hard way that legal promises don’t stop tanks.

So why would Trump push a deal widely seen as disastrous for Ukraine?

First, domestic promises. He campaigned on a pledge to end the war in 24 hours, repeated over 50 times since. A year on, his reputation as a dealmaker is on........

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