Should the government privatise the petroleum exploration and production (EP) public enterprises, Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) and Oil India Limited (OIL)? This question had been deemed too sensitive for serious discussion. I resurrect it not to make the case for privatisation but because the altered landscape of the international petroleum market warrants a discussion.

Last month, I started this column with the words, “the fog of war has lifted somewhat” (‘From the Iran conflict, four geopolitical shifts India cannot afford to miss,’ IE, July 6) and sketched the four systemic shifts the conflict in the Middle East has wrought on the petroleum market — faltering trust in the US security umbrella; the lever of maritime choke points to alter the balance of power; the emergence of a faction in Iran driven more by the goal of building back the Iranian economy than defending the principles of the 1979 revolution; and OPEC’s weakening influence.

Since then, the fog of war has descended again. It is difficult to see where all this is headed. Several scenarios can be sketched. Diplomacy wins; President Donald Trump eats “a banquet of crow”, to quote American commentator Thomas L Friedman; Iran conciliates; the Strait of Hormuz is re-opened, and the region returns to the new normal of “no war – no peace”. Or madness continues. The US President makes real his threat to bomb Iran to rubble. Another........

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