Wars always follow a single fundamental rule. You know where to start, but you never control how they end. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is just another.

All three key protagonists — Iran, Israel, and the US — are signalling that they are “winning”. In what is supposed to be his first Nowruz — the pre-Islamic Persian New Year — message, the new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, claimed that Iran has dealt a “dizzying blow” to its enemies and that “the enemy has been defeated”. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed that after 20 days of operations, “Iran today has no ability to enrich uranium and no ability to produce ballistic missiles”. US President Donald Trump, who has been claiming that the war was progressing faster than planned, signalled that the conflict is “winding down”. The Middle East, a land of prophets and prophecies, has a unique trait: Nothing happens until it really happens.

Three weeks since the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, where do we stand today? At least 14 countries are directly involved in the conflict, causing significant global repercussions. The war has already shattered several taboos and unthinkables. The killings of the Supreme Leader, security chief Ali Larijani, and several other key Iranian military figures have been devastating for the regime. This has resulted in two conflicting outcomes. One, the long-anticipated collapse of the regime has not occurred, at least not yet. And two, the conflict has weakened central authority and loosened decision-making, giving more power to local authorities — those who........

© Indian Express