The National Statistics Office’s (NSO) provisional estimates peg India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 6.5 per cent for 2024-25, with the fourth quarter growing at a blistering 7.4 per cent. The first and second advance estimates, which were based on limited data, had projected 6.4 per cent and 6.5 per cent, respectively.

The positive surprises in GDP revisions seen in the past three fiscals may end here, at least for now. The economy seems to be realigning with its long-term trend growth. The decadal average growth before the Covid-19 pandemic was 6.6 per cent.

For 2023-24, the first advance estimates had pinned growth at 7.3 per cent, the provisional estimates revised that to 8.2 per cent and then to 9.2 per cent. In India’s GDP reporting framework, provisional estimates are more reliable and enduring than the two preceding advance estimates. The next GDP estimate for fiscal 2025 will be released in early 2026. Until then, these estimates provide a more stable basis for forecasting GDP amid a wall of global uncertainty.

India’s nominal GDP, which factors in the inflation rate, grew 9.8 per cent in fiscal 2025. Put another way, the size of the absolute economy reached $3.91 trillion from $3.6 trillion in fiscal 2024.

Private consumption grew a good 7.2 per cent on rural demand even as urban stayed subdued. That said, consumption growth did slow to 6 per cent in the fourth quarter. Government consumption expenditure, too, was restrained, growing 2.3 per cent for the full fiscal........

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