Historical analogies must be approached with caution. Yet there is a striking symmetry between the foreign policy challenges that confronted India in 1990-91 and those now posed by the wars in Iran and Ukraine. Simultaneous upheavals in the Middle East and Europe in 1991 shattered India’s economic and strategic assumptions. Today, the two regions are again compelling Delhi to reconsider the foundations of its national strategy.

Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in August 1990, and the US-led war to reverse Saddam Hussein’s annexation, sent oil prices soaring, disrupted remittances and aggravated India’s balance-of-payments crisis. Within months, the Soviet Union — the principal anchor of Indian foreign policy during the Cold War — collapsed. The twin shocks forced India to reform its economy, diversify its international partnerships and rethink its place in the world.

The circumstances today are different, but the underlying challenge is familiar. The war that began with the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader on February 28 has raised energy costs, disrupted navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and exposed India’s dependence on the Middle East.

The relief in Delhi after Washington and Tehran signed a memorandum of understanding in June has proved premature as the conflict escalates again. In Europe, meanwhile, the Ukraine war has entered its fifth year without a clear path to settlement. Russia is not about to disintegrate as the Soviet Union did in 1991. But the prolonged war, with its mounting costs, is generating new questions about Russia’s future at........

© Indian Express