Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been at a virtual standstill for two months now. In response, oil prices spiked, tanker rates skyrocketed and “experts” have claimed Wall Street has priced it all into the financial markets.

But what exactly has been “priced in” on the major indexes? To many, it appears the answer is higher oil prices, but only on the assumption – as J.P. Morgan said this week  — that Hormuz traffic is back to full flows by June 1.

Just a couple of problems there:

June 1 is three weeks away, and no deal between the U.S. and Iran seems to be in the offing.

The oil supply shock is but one of several cascading shocks created by the halt of flows from the Persian Gulf.

Here’s what traders haven’t priced in yet: the cascading supply shocks in helium, fertilizer feedstocks and the semiconductor industry that powers everything from your smartphone to the data centers running AI. These aren’t myths or narratives, but foundational vulnerabilities tied directly to the same chokepoint everyone claims to understand.

Let’s start with helium, a critical industrial input extracted as a byproduct of natural gas processing. Qatar, sitting on one of the world’s largest natural gas fields, supplied roughly 30% of global helium output prior........

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