In early 2024, as the IPL was underway and the country edged closer to the General Elections, a new breed of gaming apps surged in popularity, urging Indians to stake money on their opinions. Leading this pack was Probo, a platform that let users trade opinions on real-world outcomes — everything from “Will Rohit Sharma score a century?” to “Will this candidate win this seat?”

The model was simple: Get users to trade on the binary outcomes of future events. It also included innocuous questions like “Will it rain in Delhi tomorrow?”. Users pay a fee and buy into an opinion i.e. either invest in a yes or a no. The payout depends on the outcome, but also on the number of people backing the outcome.

At its peak, Probo was reportedly clocking over 1 Mn daily active users and was spending aggressively to acquire more.

“Probo was running more influencer campaigns than most gaming startups last year. Their reach during IPL 2024 was insane. They cracked Tier II and Tier III India like no one else,” a rival fantasy sports marketing exec exclaimed.

But as quickly as it rose, Probo and the “opinion trading” category is now on the verge of a complete collapse.

Founded in 2019, Probo epitomised this new breed of apps. It found a sweet spot between fantasy gaming, financial speculation, and social engagement. The startup attracted significant VC interest and reportedly raised more than $28 Mn in funding to date with marquee names such as Peak XV Partners and Elevation Capital on board.

Even as Probo claimed to be a “skill-based prediction exchange”, it operated in a regulatory vacuum — such games are not explicitly illegal under extant state gambling laws, but there is no clear regulation either.

Indeed, the skill vs chance has gone on for many years within the online gaming industry, and Probo is the latest startup to get caught in legal crosshairs.

Inside The Opinion Trading Game

While Probo remains at the centre of scrutiny, it’s not the only player in the opinion trading ecosystem.

Platforms like TradeX, SportsBaazi, and MPL’s Opinio have also been experimenting with real-money prediction formats. TradeX recently announced a pivot to a free-to-play model, while SportsBaazi and........

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