The First AI War: The Dilemma of Military Autonomy
The designation is not purely rhetorical. There has been unprecedented use of AI-driven assets as Decision Support Systems (DSS), not merely as secondary analytical tools but as active enablers of kill chains. Typically, the process of gathering intelligence, identifying targets, conducting simulations and damage assessments, performing predictive analyses, assigning weapons, and executing missions took weeks, if not months, of human deliberation. However, the current war has seen attacks executed faster than ‘the speed of thought’, exemplified by the US conducting almost 900 strikes on Iranian targets in the first 12 hours alone and over 5,500 strikes in the first 10 days.[3]
To achieve such unprecedented scale, precision and velocity in attacks, the United States Central Command (CENTCOM) leveraged advanced AI tools, such as Palantir’s MAVEN Smart System (MSS), which was integrated with Anthropic’s Claude LLM. These assets were using troves of unstructured, classified data from satellites, surveillance and other intelligence, helping to provide pattern development, real-time targeting and target prioritisation.[4] For instance, the precision strikes that led to assassination of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei[5] and marked beginning of the war, was done by methodical use of AI and cyber espionage—the cameras in Tehran were hacked over the years, recording and feeding massive amounts of presumably mundane data (parking, personnel, traffic light timings, etc.) to Israel. This data, in turn, was used to map patterns and layouts, and ultimately to run predictive analyses for simultaneous and precise strikes.
The US has also developed and deployed Low-cost Unmanned Combat Attack System (LUCAS), a ‘Kamikaze’ drone system, as a cost-efficient high-volume defence asset against Iran. At a production cost of US$ 35,000, these drones offer a lower-cost alternative compared to US Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles, which cost upward of US$ 2.4 million per shot.[6] Interestingly, LUCAS drones were reverse-engineered from Iran’s HESA Shahed-136 drones, which have gained notoriety in the Ukraine–Russia war. These drones are equipped with artificial intelligence that enables them to perform autonomous and swarm manoeuvres. The integration of LUCAS marks significant departures from the conventional understanding of asymmetric warfare. One, there is a realisation in the US that sophistication is not the only benchmark of military capability, and that cost and mass can be decisive factors. Secondly, the earlier logic of the flow of technology from more advanced to less advanced states no longer necessarily hold.[7]
Iran has similarly leveraged drone saturation and cyber warfare against the US and Israel. Iranian drone strikes have allegedly been responsible for the deaths of six US military personnel in Kuwait.[8] These attacks are also being used for targeting data infrastructures; of the six data facilities that the US company Amazon has in the UAE, three were allegedly struck by Iranian drones.[9] Iranian hacker group Handala has also reportedly targeted US and Israel-based entities, including Israel’s Air Force personnel, Israel Meteorological Systems, US-based medical technology firm Stryker and Hebrew University.[10] There are indications that the diminished timeline for their scale of attacks may be due to AI-assisted reconnaissance.[11] Furthermore, allegations have emerged that Iran has been actively leveraging AI for disinformation campaigns in the media.[12] Notably, Iran is currently........
