The Doomsday Clock seeks to capture the severity of the existential threats facing humankind, as understood by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. While initially focused on nuclear weapon dangers, in recent years, threat vectors have shifted to include climate change, emerging disruptive technologies like AI, and biological risks.

On 27 January 2026, the Doomsday Clock struck 85 seconds to midnight, the closest it has ever been to Doomsday. The Clock, developed by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (The Bulletin), serves as an influential metaphor for humanity’s proximity to global catastrophe. Originally conceived amid the dawn of the atomic age to convey the urgency of nuclear apocalypse, the Clock has evolved over the years to reflect the challenges of the time. Each adjustment to the clock’s position is accompanied by an official statement from the Bulletin outlining the rationale for the decision. The 2026 statement[i] noted that the existential risks associated with the nuclear arms race, climate crises, misuse of biotechnology, and artificial intelligence (AI) shape the Bulletin’s global threat perception.

85 Seconds to Midnight

According to the Bulletin, the continuation of the Russia–Ukraine war and the emergence of new theatres of armed conflicts in 2025 intensified global nuclear risks. Several other developments, such as the consistent modernisation of nuclear weapons arsenals and delivery systems of Russia, China and the US,[ii] as well as the possibility of a European deterrent[iii] outside of the US nuclear umbrella, further prompted this shift in the clock. As the Bulletin noted on 27 January 2026, New START was nearing its expiration. By 5 February 2026, the treaty formally lapsed, thereby removing any legally binding limits on the strategic nuclear weapons of the US and Russia. The erosion of the nuclear arms control regime was also cited as a key factor in bringing the clock closest ever to midnight.

Risks associated with climate change also played a decisive role in the clock’s movement. The Bulletin cited the rise in sea levels due to glacial melt, intensifying fatal heatwaves worldwide, increasing global temperatures to up to 150 per cent of pre-industrial levels, and the limited effectiveness of the UN Climate Summits in achieving their stated objectives as key reasons for categorising climate change as an existential threat.

The Bulletin’s statement particularly emphasised the human toll of heatwaves in Europe and the displacement caused by severe floods in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). However, notably absent from the analysis was any mention of extreme weather events across Asia,[iv] Latin America, the Caribbean,[v] and Australia[vi].

The Bulletin further mapped the existential risks posed by biological threats and disruptive technologies. Advances in the life sciences and the application of Large Language Models (LLMs) in biological design have increased the potential for misuse of biotechnology. The lack of legally binding safeguards on biological research under the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC), coupled with the ambiguous status of the biological programmes of countries like China, was cited as a factor amplifying the threats posed by biological toxins.[vii] A substantial portion of the statement, however, focused on the challenges within the US public health infrastructure.

The fourth determinant parameter, which brought the clock to 85 seconds to midnight, is the existential impact of disruptive technologies. The Bulletin delineates that without a governance infrastructure in place, the application of AI models in nuclear command-and-control systems and the deployment of weapons could have detrimental impacts on global security. Emerging disruptive technologies have also revived concerns about a new arms race, as indicated by US President Donald Trump’s proposal to develop a ‘Golden Dome’ missile defence system[viii] with space-based interceptors for Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs).

Origin and Historical Context

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, co-founded by Dr Eugene Rabinowitch and Dr Hyman Goldsmith in 1945, provides a forum for dialogue on the implications of atomic energy within the US and internationally. It was founded post-Hiroshima, at the insistence of Manhattan Project alums, including Dr J. Robert Oppenheimer and Dr Leo Szilard, at the University of Chicago as part of an emergency effort to embed safeguards within the post-war order against nuclear conflict. Its mission was to alert the public to existential dangers in a climate of security hysteria that continues to dominate contemporary political life.

The Doomsday Clock featured on the cover of the Bulletin for the first time in 1949 owes its design and conceptualisation to the artist Martyl Langsdorf. Although the decision to set the clock at 7 minutes to midnight in 1947 was purely driven by aesthetic considerations,[ix] it emerged in a world still grappling with the consequences of the use of nuclear weapons for the very first time. Over time, the Doomsday Clock became one of the most recognisable icons, not only in the scientific world but also in popular culture.

Figure 1. The Doomsday Clock, 1949

Source: The Bulletin of Atomic........

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