International Affairs

Determining America's Role in the World

As of this writing in mid-February 2026, talks between the United States and Iran are underway, even as American naval forces gather nearby. Whether the talks will succeed or an attack will take place is unpredictable in this volatile region. The future of the Iranian regime, which has been facing unprecedented levels of domestic protest, is up in the air. It is, however, important to remember that Iran has been the culprit behind the instability in the Levant where, during the past few years, so much has changed. It is fair to ask how close we are to a new regional order there and the significance for the U.S.

The Middle East has long figured high on the list of American foreign policy concerns, although the rationales have varied over the years. The region’s importance for the world’s oil economy has never ceased to be a major factor, although this applies primarily to the Gulf and not significantly to the Levant. Furthermore, given the challenging geography of the shipping lanes that pass through vulnerable choke points at the Straits of Hormuz, Bab al Mandab and Suez, control of those points–or at least preventing their falling to hostile forces–remains a strategic goal. In addition, the U.S. has geostrategic interests in the region: the Middle East was a key terrain in which the U.S. and Russia competed for influence during the Cold War, and that phenomenon has returned in the current age of “Great Power Competition,” now with both Russia and China opposing American influence. A third dimension involves Iran: the programmatic animosity of its post-1979 regime toward the U.S., its efforts at regional destabilization and the pursuit of nuclear weaponry. Finally, since President Truman’s decision to support the establishment of the Jewish state in 1948, there have been multiple strands of domestic American public support for Israel, whether based in Zionism, Christian Zionism, or a perception of shared democratic values in a region where democracy is rare.

Despite these many factors pulling the U.S. toward the Middle East, in current U.S. policy discussions, not a few voices–including inside the Trump administration–argue for reducing commitments in the region in order to free up resources to redeploy them to where they are allegedly more necessary, i.e. the Western Pacific to ward off an expected Chinese effort to seize Taiwan. Nonetheless, the Trump administration has in fact remained very engaged in efforts to reshape the region. One should note of course that no matter how distinctive this administration’s style may be–the reliance on special envoys, the President’s rhetorical style, or the content of particular proposals–the focus on the Middle East is quite conventional. President after president has tried to “solve” the Middle East, and in this, President Trump is no different. He has expended political capital there, and he has brought his influence to bear on the component problems. With what results? Since his reelection in November 2024, a lot has changed in the Middle East, but it is important to ask why. How much of the changing Levant is due to administration policies? How much can be attributed to other factors?

This question of historical interpretation is akin to the debate over the end of the Cold War in Europe, the opening of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Soviet Union. For some American viewers, those dramatic changes were primarily a result of the Reagan administration’s policies, especially the........

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