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John Swinney's nightmare: Scotland's £5bn deficit will force brutal cuts

13 0
11.05.2026

Certain phrases should be banned from politics. Rising to the top of the list this week is “efficiency savings”.

Making efficiency savings and reducing back-office functions is how the SNP says it will plug a £5bn black hole in the public finances between now and 2030 but what that really means is …well, who knows? Ministers have been studiedly vague about it, but John Swinney doing his own photocopying won’t cover it.

Really this should have been the story of the campaign, but the parties conspired silently with one another to avoid being the ones to talk about cuts. Now the reckoning. It will make this term of office the SNP’s toughest yet. The dilemma arises from the amount the Scottish Government is projected to spend between now and 2030, and how much cash they actually have. Economists have regularly criticised the SNP for spending more than they take in from reliable recurrent sources.

At the same time, there’s an increase in spending coming down the line in the social security budget. Public sector pay awards that have risen above what ministers budgeted for have to be sustained for years to come. The NHS, meanwhile, has been getting hefty budget increases year on year and demand is still rising. You’ll travel a long way to find a nurse – or a patient – who thinks the NHS doesn’t need any more cash.

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