When John Swinney assumed the throne of the Scottish National Party, not much over a year ago, it looked rather like his job would be to ensure that the party exited government gracefully.

Beset by scandal after scandal, and latterly by a phalanx of policy failures, the party’s support was down by around one-third of its peak and, simultaneously, Scottish Labour had found a smart and sellable leader in Anas Sarwar, to go along with Sir Keir Starmer, the competent, steady hand that the UK was looking for after a chaotic end to the Tories’ term in office.

That was the idea, anyway. But the rest is now history. The rapid demise of the Labour Party since entering government at Westminster has all but demolished Mr Sarwar’s prospects of becoming First Minister. Yes, he is extremely engaging and persuasive, but he is pushing water uphill with a rake; he’s doing it ably and admirably, but it’s still up a hill and he still has a rake.

Something else has happened, too – Nigel Farage. The rise and rise of Reform UK increasingly looks like a trend which will become a norm. As I wrote on these pages last week, every hundred years or so there is an enduring change in UK politics, with one party being replaced by another; we are overdue for a seismic event of this type, and Mr Farage’s Reform may well be........

© Herald Scotland