With a 25 per cent approval rating, the 20-year old SNP government is not popular, and voters are primed to vote for a change. But, as Andy Maciver considers, they may feel the change they want can be delivered by John Swinney rather than by one of the alternatives

Elections can be demoralising and exhilarating in equal measure. Most of the exhilaration is reserved for those who work on campaigns, and I have been in that position in the past. Most of the demoralisation, on the other hand, is reserved for those of us who observe politics from a position of relative impartiality, which is the position I find myself in these days.

The ‘short’ campaign has really only been underway for a week, and it would be grossly overoptimistic to believe that our politicians have raised the level of debate in that time. From what I can see, they are spending most of their time focussing on the travails of their opponents rather than on their own virtues.

There has been an extraordinary focus on Reform leader Malcolm Offord’s joke, of course, which I covered on these pages last week. We are told by his opponents that Mr Offord should resign for telling this joke nearly 10 years ago, before he was a politician, although it is unclear whether or not any of our other leaders have told a terribly offensive joke in their past. Actually, now that I think about it, some people wanted Anas Sarwar, Labour’s leader, to resign because he told a joke about being the victim of a stroke, and that was just last month.

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That’s perhaps a reasonable distraction for Mr Sarwar, given that his opponents want some of his candidates (and MPs) to resign based on either their proximity to sex offenders, proximity to fraudulent activity or proximity to China. One of those opponents is the SNP, but of course their opponents would like a resignation from an SNP candidate on account of her relationship with a sex offender. Meanwhile, the Tories are focussed on finding Reform candidates who once supported independence and outing them on Twitter. It is unclear whether anyone wants any Liberal Democrat candidates to resign, but we will doubtless find one soon.

Raising the level very slightly above the sub-surface, everyone is accusing everyone of preparing what everyone calls a ‘grubby backroom coalition deal’ designed to keep good people out of government. The SNP are going to do a grubby backroom coalition deal with the Greens, plunging us back into a Cuban calamity.

The SNP are also going to do a grubby backroom coalition deal with the Lib Dems, the latter of which is of course therefore not a true unionist party unlike the party accusing them of said grubby backroom coalition deal. There is more. Because Labour is also ready to do a grubby backroom coalition deal not only with the Lib Dems, but also with the Conservatives and Reform UK. But the SNP is not interested in a grubby backroom coalition deal because they are going to win a majority.

The Greens are interested in a grubby backroom coalition deal, but only with the SNP. Labour is not interested in a grubby backroom coalition deal because they are going to win the election and govern as a minority. The Conservatives and Reform will not do a deal with each other, but they will both do a deal with Labour. But Labour will not do a deal with the Conservatives or Reform so it doesn’t matter. The Lib Dems will not do a deal with the SNP, or Reform, or the Conservatives, but they might do a deal with Labour. But Labour are going to govern as a minority so they won’t do a deal with the Lib Dems.

So, here we are. On Wednesday night Holyrood Sources, the podcast which I co-host, interviewed all six party leaders in an attempt to sideline these side issues and offer a platform for them to outline their vision for the Scotland they wish to govern from this year until 2031.

Over the course of nearly three hours, during which each leader was interviewed separately, the defining factor of this election became increasingly clear to me: the leaders of the opposition parties expected John Swinney to be a terrible First Minister, but he’s not.

This is not to pretend that everything in the garden is rosy; it is emphatically not. This is a government, particularly since 2014, which has been characterised by phases of poor policy and poor delivery. Its public approval rating, which in every poll sits at only around 25 per cent, is a fair verdict.

Slowly but decisively, though, Mr Swinney is putting ever more distance between himself and his predecessors. He has not stood in front of the Scottish Parliament and ripped up Nicola Sturgeon’s manifestos in a flamboyant act of Trumpian chutzpah, and nor will he, but in his own way, in his own words, he is telling us every day that he is the is holding the fire extinguisher and is dousing the flames created by those who went before him.

The most obviously powerful message in this election is that it is time for a change. Indeed, Mr Sarwar neatly encompassed that sentiment during Wednesday’s podcast when he said “John Swinney has had 20 years; give me 5”.

It was a nice line. Nonetheless, Mr Sarwar is obliged to consider that although the public may respond well to a ‘change’ message, they may also increasingly feel that it is Mr Swinney who encompasses it. In the final analysis, we may well consider that Mr Swinney’s most remarkable skill is erasing his time as Deputy First Minister from the public conscience, presenting them instead with a stable, sober skipper who will steer Scotland away from the rocks we were pointing towards.

Most of those present on the evening, and those watching on YouTube or listening to the podcast, will probably conclude that Mr Sarwar presented himself as the only realistic alternative to Mr Swinney. He was energetic, engaged, sharp. And we should absolutely avoid ruling him out. Much can change in five weeks, and swings greater than those required to propel Mr Sarwar to Bute House have been achieved in elections past. 

However, I find it difficult to escape the feeling that most of those Scots who saw a tired SNP government in need of replacement may well feel that the change they want will be Mr Swinney himself.

Caretakers are only caretakers when they turn out not to be good.

Andy Maciver is Founding Director of Message Matters, and co-host of the Holyrood Sources podcast

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