Predicted SNP landslide prompts fresh scrutiny of Scotland’s electoral model
A new mega-poll predicts that the SNP will win another majority at the May election. Andy Maciver argues that this would be bad for devolution, and that we are compelled to rethink the voting system to make Holyrood do better.
I am not instinctively antipathetic towards the SNP. It’s time in government, in my view, has been mixed, and it would not be a challenge to dedicate this entire column to its mistakes, not least on the economy and in our schools. However I could also make a case that there are signs of green shoots under the leadership of John Swinney and the strategic positioning of a number of key lieutenants, not least the brilliant Ivan McKee, who is quietly ensuring that the engine which sits under Scotland’s bonnet works more efficiently than it used to.
Nor am I instinctively against the concept of independence. I would not vote for it today, but I can see a route in the longer term to a well run, wealthy, healthy independent Scotland of which I’d be happy to be a part.
But I did wince, I must say, when the first Holyrood Multi-Regression Poll (MRP) was published earlier this week, predicting another SNP majority. An MRP methodology is thought to be more accurate than a conventional poll due to its ability to combine both national sentiment and local circumstances. This week’s poll predicted that the SNP would win 67 seats - all in constituencies.
Now, I have some trouble believing that this poll will become reality. However, let’s for a second presume that it will, for I fear this outcome in a number of ways. Firstly, it would indicate that the threshold for the holding of another independence........
