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Brazil Runoff Vote on October 25th Is Still Up for Grabs

Less than a week before the October 25 runoff, Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a narrow lead while Lula regains the initiative.

By Daniel Zovatto (Confidencial)

HAVANA TIMES — In politics, confidence can become a liability, and fear can become a resource. One week before Brazil’s October 25 runoff, Flavio Bolsonaro (far right, candidate of the Liberal Party) is trying to prevent his supporters from mistaking the narrow lead he secured in the first round of 1.87% for a guaranteed victory and staying home on election day.

Meanwhile, incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (left) is seeking to turn the relief of remaining competitive into a comeback. Both candidates have reasons to mobilize their supporters. Neither has grounds to consider the election settled.

The difference between their moods matters less than the gap between their vote totals.

The latest Datafolha poll puts Flávio at 51% of valid votes and Lula at 49%, placing them in a statistical tie within the two-percentage-point margin of error. A Quaest poll reports the same distribution.

The conclusion requires precision: Flavio retains the numerical lead, but the polls do not allow anyone to say with certainty who will win on October 25. The runoff remains wide open.

There is also a difference between narrowing the gap and expanding one’s support. In Datafolha, Flavio fell from 49% to 47% of the total electorate, while Lula remained at 45%. The incumbent’s camp has improved its relative position without yet demonstrating an expansion of its support. Interpreting this shift as a completed comeback would be just as premature as treating the first-round result as irreversible.

The president enters the final week with a recent psychological advantage: his campaign once again believes it can win. Rallies, online activity, and the recent reform ending the six-days-on, one-day-off work schedule allow him to revive a conversation he needs to have: what can improve in Brazilians’ everyday lives if he remains in power?

However, the electoral calendar places limits on the government’s ability to generate gratitude. Announcing benefits is quicker than turning them into improved well-being.........

© Havana Times