It feels like summer, when it is still winter in Kashmir! Flowers have started to bloom prematurely amid an unusual spike in daytime temperatures around 11 degrees above normal.

Is there a gloom amid the sunshine! The rising temperature in February, which is the highest maximum recorded in this month in a decade, must set alarm bells ringing.

J&K’s summer capital Srinagar on February 21 surpassed its all-time February maximum temperature record with 21 degrees Celsius. Srinagar’s previous February high of 20.6 degrees Celsius was recorded on February 24, 2016. Gulmarg in north Kashmir surpassed its previous February record, recording 11.6 degrees Celsius on Friday and 11.5 degrees Celsius on Saturday. The ski-resort temperature is 9.6 and 9.5 degrees above normal, respectively. The earlier high of 11.4 degrees Celsius was set in February 11, 1993. Similarly mercury in Qazigund in south Kashmir reached 21 degrees Celsius which is 10.9 degrees above normal, breaking the previous record of 20.7 degrees Celsius. Kokernag in south Kashmir recorded 18.4 degrees Celsius — 9.6 degrees above normal.

Well there are clear indicators of climate change amid unusually warmer and dry winters. Experts have sounded an alarm over the rise in temperatures in winter. The winter duration has clearly reduced and now snowfall has been confined to J&K’s mostly upper reaches during the 40-day harshest period known as Chillai Kalan. Sudden spike in temperature has led to earlier melting of snow on mountains increasing flow in water bodies.

Snowmelt accounts for 50% of stream flow in Kashmir. Thus snowfall is critical for sustaining hydrology and water availability. When there is reduction in snow cover or snowfall directly translates into diminished spring and summer runoff, this will affect irrigated agriculture, horticultural productivity, and hydropower generation. This can pose serious challenges to the region’s water security and climate resilience.

J&K has witnessed four snowless Chillai Kalans over the last two decades. The spring heat wave of 2022 and recurrent above-normal summer-autumn-winter temperatures have propelled increasingly snow-deficient landscapes. This has put the region’s glaciers under stress and increased the recession rate. Scientific studies have clearly revealed how Kolhai, the largest glacier of Kashmir’s Jhelum Basin, is retreating rapidly due to a spurt in temperature triggered by global warming and extreme pollution. Thajiwas, Hoksar, Nehnar, Shishram, and glaciers around Harmukh are melting fast.

Melting of glaciers has led to creation of glacial lakes over the decades and increased risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods.  What’s more alarming is that studies have predicted that Kashmir valley will experience more frequent and prolonged dry spells from the mid to end of the 21st century making it a new norm during 2051-2099 due to the climate change. The depleting stream flow predicted in the Upper Indus Basin ending in the twenty-first century will have serious impacts on various sectors of the economy, particularly agriculture and dependent livelihoods which are already facing severe water scarcity.

We need to understand that owing to its unique topography, J&K is a multi-hazard prone Himalayan region which is vulnerable to natural disasters especially earthquake, floods, landslides, windstorms and soil erosion. J&K ranks third among the Himalayan areas which are vulnerable to climate change and fall in the highest seismic zones.

Anantnag, Kulgam, and Ganderbal districts in Kashmir while Kishtwar, Doda, Ramban, Reasi, and Udhampur districts in Jammu division have emerged in high vulnerability category, in the data of frequent cloud bursts, flash floods, landslides of the last 15 years in J&K.

Chief Minister Omar Abdullah informed the Legislative Assembly recently that the vulnerability was decided on the basis of human deaths, infrastructure damage and losses of agricultural and horticultural crops and livestock. It is a timely initiative that the J&K Government has constituted an expert committee for Hazard, Vulnerability and Risk Assessment (HVRA) for the Union Territory. The panel will assess multi-hazard risk including seismic, flood, landslide, GLOF, forest fires and demarcate hazard and zonation framework; prepare J&K HVRA atlas; prioritise sectoral and intervention strategies. Besides, the panel has been tasked to integrate HVRA outputs into planning and governance; recommend institutional and operational modalities for sustained HVRA updates; review existing plans and data systems for strengthening management of weather vagaries.

India Meteorological Department ( IMD) is also mulling to install four more Doppler weather radars and 34 automatic weather stations or snow gauges in J&K. This will strengthen the weather monitoring system and complement existing 3 X-band radars in Srinagar, Jammu and Banihal. The four new radars are proposed to be installed in Doda, Rajouri, Anantnag and Baramulla for catering weather services or early warning systems. These measures will enhance forecasting capacity or early warning systems for hydro-meteorological natural disasters across J&K.

However, more than precaution we need preventive measures to mitigate climate change. We need to rise to save our ecosystem. Till a few decades ago it was unimaginable to see J&K witnessing dry winters, facing severe water crisis and increased frequency of natural disasters. Something has gone wrong somewhere. Due to ill-planning and haphazard development, we have left no stone unturned to damage our mountains, forests and water bodies.  We need to wake up and introspect and act now!

It is high time that the government and people must work on mitigating the effects of climate change. Environment Impact Assessment (EIA) must be made mandatory before execution of any infrastructure development project. We also need to spare eco-fragile areas especially areas housing glaciers, forests and water bodies from any sort of construction.  There is a need to go for sustainable development, reduce greenhouse gases and carbon footprints and combat rising pollution levels.

We need to play our role as humans to maintain ecological balance, to let nature and its creations thrive. Let’s live in harmony with nature as our survival depends on it!

Author is Executive Editor, Greater Kashmir

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