Global commodity markets covering energy, metals and agriculture have gone through turbulent times from the beginning of this month. The imposition of tariffs and countermeasures by various countries has caused huge uncertainty. ‘When will calmness return to the markets?’, is a question every market participant is asking.

The oil market faced the most severe turbulence. By the middle of last week, the price of Brent crude had fallen by $15 a barrel compared to the beginning of the month. However, there was strong recovery thanks to the relief of the US government’s pause on most reciprocal tariffs.

The extent to which global demand for oil weakens is likely to depend on economic activities in China, as the world’s two largest economies, the US and China, are currently engaged in a fierce tariff war. This week the International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC are scheduled to present new demand forecasts in their monthly reports. However, even if there is no major downward revision of the demand forecast, the oversupply in the oil market is likely to be significant. This is because of the stronger production in OPEC from........

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