The Reserve Bank of India’s bi-monthly Inflation Expectations Survey of households in March 2026 shows perceived inflation to be 7.2 per cent. This is more than double the official Consumer Price Index-based reading of 3.2 per cent for February. The CPI was revamped recently to be more representative of true inflation.

The RBI survey also shows households expect prices to rise 8.5 per cent over the next three months and 8.8 per cent over the year. This is not a statistical quirk or popular pessimism; it is lived experience. And the gap between official data and ground-level perception of reality has rarely been more politically charged.

Double oil squeeze intensifies pressure

Meanwhile, India is caught in a double oil squeeze. The first is fuel. With crude at $115 per barrel in March, driven by the West Asia conflict, transport and power costs and the prices of virtually all manufactured goods are rising.

The RBI itself acknowledges that its baseline assumption of $85 per barrel for the year could easily be breached if hostilities resume. The ceasefire between the US and Iran, announced earlier this month, is fragile. Peace talks have failed. A resumption of conflict would push oil, and therefore Indian inflation, sharply higher.

The second oil is what Indians use for cooking. India imports nearly 90 per cent of its edible oils—palm from Indonesia and Malaysia, soya from Argentina and Brazil, and sunflower from Russia and Ukraine. The West Asia crisis has rattled global commodities markets and sent vegetable oil prices surging alongside crude.

Retail edible oil prices rose by Rs 1 to 4 per kg........

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