Could United and American airlines really merge? 5 key questions about a blockbuster deal

In the past few days, headlines are buzzing over the possibility of a mega-mega-merger that before the news broke, would have seemed inconceivable: A possible tie-up between United Airlines and American Airlines. American already ranks as the world’s largest carrier by passengers flown, and United stands forth; at their current sizes, the combo would be twice the size of both 2nd place Delta and number three Ryanair on the global stage, and ferry over three-and-a-half times as many folks as continental Europe’s largest stalwart, Lufthansa. In the U.S., the deal would break a near three-way tie with Delta for available seats, and catapult a new behemoth into by far the most dominant stateside position in the annals of air travel.

Any time one airline seeks to buy rival, the proposed transaction attracts anti-trust scrutiny and political controversy practically unmatched in any other realm of M&A. And due to its scale in an already highly-concentrated sector, and potential to raise fares, limit choice, and curb the frequency of service to dozens of smaller markets, this mother of all unions would face far fiercer than usual opposition on multiple fronts. Hence, it’s a long shot. But the industry insiders Fortune interviewed swear that it’s by no means impossible. The reason: The Trump Administration’s attraction to grand gestures—you can call it broad exercises in industrial policy—that remake wide swaths of the economy over (and may sideline the usual top goals such as ensuring strong competition).

Here are five burning questions this potential mega-merger raises.

How did United’s unusual quest come about?

The week of April 13, Reuters revealed, apparently for the first time, a White House meeting held on February 25th to discuss the over half-a-billion dollar re-development project planned for Dulles International Airport near Washington, D.C. Reuters reported that President Trump hosted United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby at the confab. United’s the dominant carrier at Dulles, claiming an 82% market share. Fortune has further learned from people familiar with the talks that Susie Wiles, the President’s chief of staff, was instrumental in organizing the discussion. According to these sources, Wiles is strongly committed to the sweeping Dulles revamp that includes a new United concourse and would like to see Trump receive recognition for the new Dulles. “The president won’t rename Ronald Reagan Washington National for himself!” quips an industry insider. Texas governor Greg Abbott also attended, say people Fortune spoke to. Both airlines are crucial to the Lone Star State’s economy: American is headquartered in Ft. Worth, and United dominates George W. Bush Intercontinental in Houston.

According to the Reuters piece and other accounts, Kirby floated the joining of forces concept directly to the President. Kirby contended that the combination would achieve the giant scale required to better battle international airlines that, he’s noted in the past, are often heavily subsidized by their governments, handing them an unfair edge. In a September 2025 interview, Kirby observed that foreign-flagged carriers supply........

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