The hottest debate on Wall Street right now: Does the flood of mega-IPOs and new shares signal a downturn ahead? That depends

Investors swarmed all over SpaceX’s historic IPO and are hyped about public debuts for OpenAI and Anthropic later this year, but they’re also wondering if the good times will keep rolling.

While the stock market has demonstrated stunning durability amid shocks like President Donald Trump’s trade war and Iran war, the flood of new shares has Wall Street debating if a downturn is due soon.

In addition to the $75 billion SpaceX raised, its AI rivals are expected to tap investors for tens of billions more. And that’s after Google parent Alphabet netted $85 billion from a secondary stock offering earlier this month.

“While the mood music is relatively positive at the time of writing, history suggests caution is in order: major IPOs and periods of high issuance of equity have often preceded peaks in the US equity market,” Jonas Goltermann, chief markets economist at Capital Economics, said in a note on Friday.

He........

© Fortune