Iran’s oil is trapped while rivals’ exports from the Persian Gulf are poised to surge, but Tehran could do whatever it takes to break the chokehold

The U.S. can’t fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran can’t stop every ship from transporting oil through narrow waterway.

At the same time, the U.S. is preventing Iran from exporting its crude supplies or importing critical goods, while American forces grapple with munitions and readiness issues.

The result has been a stalemate where oil prices stay choppy but relatively in check and missiles are still launched without all-out war returning. This uneasy equilibrium, however, isn’t likely to last.

For now, significant volumes of oil are still sneaking through the Strait of Hormuz, contradicting Tehran’s claims that it’s completely closed off, as rivals Iraq, Qatar, Kuwait, and the UAE use a “dark” fleet to shuttle supplies in and out clandestinely via ship-to-ship transfers.

The Trump administration has claimed 8 million-9 million barrels a day are getting out this way, though analysts have put it closer to 7 million. While that’s far less than the prewar level of 20 million, the oil flows through the strait plus exports........

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