The only jobs giving out pay raises right now are in construction, mining, and public administration, the New York Fed finds

Good morning. On Fortune’s radar today:

Investors are prey to idle speculation, says UBS

The Fortune Most Powerful Women list for 2026 is here

Inside Citi’s five-year comeback

Wage growth in the U.S. is stalling—except for two sectors

Markets are doing the Fed’s job

S&P 500 futures are up 0.3%.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is up 0.42% in early trading and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 is up 0.18% before lunch.

Asia: South Korea’s KOSPI is up once again, this time by 2.25%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 is flat. India’s Nifty 50 is down a minor 0.027%. China’s CSI 300 is down 0.8%. 

Brent crude is at $96 a barrel this morning.

Bitcoin is down to $75,764.

Trading on speculation

With Iran negotiations being the key concern of markets at the moment, though without much information to act on, UBS’s Paul Donovan is warning investors against reacting to hints and rumors.

A fragile ceasefire still holds, despite the U.S. launching self-defense strikes against Iran over the weekend. Despite the major impact that tensions in the Middle East are having on inflation worldwide, Donovan said there is an "embarrassing lack” of economic information about the Strait of Hormuz. 

This “leaves markets prey to idle speculation, rather than the pure and objective guidance that economists can offer…[The] exchange of fire between Iran and the U.S. has not had a major market impact—it fits with Iran’s narrative on negotiations (which is what markets have priced), and keeps the optimism bias more or less intact.” 

Jane Fraser Tops the Fortune Most Powerful Women List

The Fortune Most Powerful Women list is back for its 29th year and, for the first time since 2024, we have a new No. 1.

Citigroup chair and CEO Jane Fraser has ascended to the top spot, five years after she got Citi’s corner office. Fraser broke Wall Street’s glass ceiling when she became the first female CEO of a major bank........

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