Prediction markets’ reputation comes back to earth after surprise result in Wisconsin

The results of the Democratic primary delivered a blow to the progressive wing of the party, but also to Polymarket and Kalshi—popular prediction market platforms that had gained a near-infallible reputation after accurately forecasting the outcome of every state in the 2024 presidential election.

Polymarket and Kalshi event contracts on the outcome of the Wisconsin governor’s primary aligned with the sentiments of traditional polling firms, which had predicted an easy win for progressive candidate Francesca Hong. Both platforms gave Francesca Hong roughly a 95% chance of winning, but when the votes were counted, her rival, David Crowley, prevailed by less than half a percentage point.

The surprise loss led Polymarket to delete one of its more boastful posts on X, which said Hong had a 96% chance of winning the primary, despite Hong’s lack of endorsements from prominent........

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