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What Spheres of Influence Are—and Aren’t

46 1
19.01.2026

There’s lots of talk about “spheres of influence” these days, largely in response to the latest U.S. National Security Strategy, the Trump regime’s recent actions in Venezuela, and its renewed efforts to take over Greenland. The idea that great powers should exercise unchallenged sway in their own “neighborhoods” is also consistent with U.S. President Donald Trump’s belief that strong leaders of strong countries should run the world and cut deals with each other, without worrying about international law, universal moral principles, or other idealistic notions.

Unfortunately, both those who embrace spheres of influence and those who oppose them may not fully grasp their place in world politics. In the real world, they are neither an outmoded practice that can be eliminated nor an effective way to minimize great-power competition. On the contrary, spheres of influence are both an inevitable result of international anarchy and an imperfect solution to the competitive incentives that anarchy creates.

There’s lots of talk about “spheres of influence” these days, largely in response to the latest U.S. National Security Strategy, the Trump regime’s recent actions in Venezuela, and its renewed efforts to take over Greenland. The idea that great powers should exercise unchallenged sway in their own “neighborhoods” is also consistent with U.S. President Donald Trump’s belief that strong leaders of strong countries should run the world and cut deals with each other, without worrying about international law, universal moral principles, or other idealistic notions.

Unfortunately, both those who embrace spheres of influence and those who oppose them may not fully grasp their place in world politics. In the real world, they are neither an outmoded practice that can be eliminated nor an effective way to minimize great-power competition. On the contrary, spheres of influence are both an inevitable result of international anarchy and an imperfect solution to the competitive incentives that anarchy creates.

Most objections to the idea of a great-power sphere of influence are normative: Critics maintain that such arrangements are inherently unjust. In a world of sovereign states, where each enjoys equal status under international law (see Article 2 of the U.N. Charter, for example), it is inherently wrong for powerful states to exercise significant control over their weaker neighbors through economic or military coercion. For example, even those who recognize that Russia might have reason to be concerned by Ukraine’s drift toward NATO (including the possibility of full membership at some point in the future) insist that such a decision should be solely up to NATO and Kyiv and not subject to a Russian veto. In this view, it would be equally illegitimate for China to pressure Asian countries to distance themselves from the United States or Taiwan, or for Washington to declare (as the recent National Security Strategy does) that it will “deny non-Hemispheric competitors the ability to position forces or other threatening capabilities, or to own or control strategically vital assets, in our Hemisphere.” For these critics, all states should be free to align as they see fit, and powerful neighbors have no right to tell them whom they can trade with, obtain investment from, or cooperate with militarily.´

It would be nice to live in such a norm-governed world, but this vision isn’t remotely realistic. Spheres of influence are a recurring feature of international politics, and there is little chance of eliminating them completely. One need not embrace White House aide Stephen Miller’s ignorant bombast about supposedly........

© Foreign Policy