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Understanding the conflict three years on.

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A key element of the Trump administration’s peace drive in Ukraine is a belief that revived trade ties between the United States and Russia will prevent the resumption of war—and that American investors will get rich in the process.

But some who’ve played a role in Russia’s economic sector are less optimistic, casting doubt on the prospect that trade could guarantee peace and that Russia is an untapped El Dorado.

A key element of the Trump administration’s peace drive in Ukraine is a belief that revived trade ties between the United States and Russia will prevent the resumption of war—and that American investors will get rich in the process.

But some who’ve played a role in Russia’s economic sector are less optimistic, casting doubt on the prospect that trade could guarantee peace and that Russia is an untapped El Dorado.

Investing in Russia “will be a very, very difficult environment for a very long time,” said Chris Weafer, the CEO of Macro-Advisory, a business consultancy that covers Russia’s economy.

The United States, Ukraine, and Russia have been working on a peace deal for months. The U.S. side has been optimistic about its progress—even as Russia has objected to key demands from Ukraine. The latest round of negotiations was planned for Feb. 1, but rescheduled for later this week.

Steve Witkoff, a real-estate developer, friend of U.S. President Donald Trump, and chief envoy to Russia on the Ukraine war, has framed trade deals with Russia after a peace agreement as a guarantee against future hostilities.

If “everybody’s prospering and they’re all a part of it, and there’s upside for everybody, that’s going to naturally be a bulwark against future conflicts there,” Witkoff told the Wall Street Journal in November.

Meanwhile, the administration appears to be........

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