The pillars of the global nuclear order are crumbling. Earlier this month, New START, the main nuclear treaty between the United States and Russia, expired; China has been rapidly expanding its nuclear arsenal; and in keeping with a general state of geopolitical flux, several other countries are now discussing the possibility of acquiring history’s deadliest weapon.

On the latest episode of FP Live, I spoke with Rafael Grossi, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, or IAEA—the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog. Grossi has been at the forefront of monitoring the safety of Ukraine’s nuclear power plants—even under Russian fire. And for years while the IAEA still had access, he oversaw the international campaign to keep an eye on Iran’s nuclear program. Armed with his home country Argentina’s nomination, Grossi is considered to be among the front-runners to be the next secretary-general of the United Nations.

The pillars of the global nuclear order are crumbling. Earlier this month, New START, the main nuclear treaty between the United States and Russia, expired; China has been rapidly expanding its nuclear arsenal; and in keeping with a general state of geopolitical flux, several other countries are now discussing the possibility of acquiring history’s deadliest weapon.

On the latest episode of FP Live, I spoke with Rafael Grossi, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, or IAEA—the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog. Grossi has been at the forefront of monitoring the safety of Ukraine’s nuclear power plants—even under Russian fire. And for years while the IAEA still had access, he oversaw the international campaign to keep an eye on Iran’s nuclear program. Armed with his home country Argentina’s nomination, Grossi is considered to be among the front-runners to be the next secretary-general of the United Nations.

I spoke with Grossi over the weekend on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference. Subscribers can watch the full discussion on the video box atop this page. The interview will also run on the free FP Live podcast. What follows here is a lightly edited and condensed transcript.

Ravi Agrawal: I want to begin with New START. This was the nonproliferation treaty between the United States and Russia, the world’s two biggest nuclear players. How worried are you that the treaty has expired?

Rafael Grossi: It was a well-known secret that it was going to happen. In the immediate future, there will not be any big changes. The impact of this is more that we don’t have, at the moment, any other arms limitation treaty to set a maximum number of warheads and things like that. Nobody is expecting to see a dramatic change in nuclear arsenals in the immediate future, but it’s important that the issue continues to be looked at. Despite their limitations, these instruments provide an element of predictability in general and strategic terms as to where big nuclear powers stand.

As you know, there is a push from the United States to include other actors like China in the discussion. China is not in agreement with that. But in any case, there are also new technologies now—vectors and hypersonic submarine drones—that would need to be included for an instrument to be effective.

RA: Much of what you’re saying is similar to U.S. President Donald Trump’s position. But part of the issue is that there doesn’t seem to be sustained movement to create a new treaty.

RG: I’m not privy to the discussions, but I think the United States and Russia are talking. So perhaps it’s not completely accurate to say nothing is happening. There is a dialogue, and of course it should be promoted and supported.

RA: You hinted at this earlier, but there’s vertical proliferation, when a country that is already a nuclear power expands its arsenal, and there’s horizontal proliferation, when new countries acquire nuclear weapons. Nine countries have nuclear weapons now, and the IAEA says that........

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