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Rivals Circle an Out-of-Touch Prabowo

13 0
02.09.2026

Welcome to Foreign Policy’s Southeast Asia Brief.

The highlights this week: Protests turn ugly in Indonesia as pro-presidential thugs emerge, Thailand cracks down on badly-behaved foreigners, and an unhealthy haze engulfs the region.

Welcome to Foreign Policy’s Southeast Asia Brief.

The highlights this week: Protests turn ugly in Indonesia as pro-presidential thugs emerge, Thailand cracks down on badly-behaved foreigners, and an unhealthy haze engulfs the region.

Thugs come out as government popularity slips

Indonesia’s gangsters have a long history of acting as arms of the state in a crisis. Last week, we saw one of the most blatant examples of this since the country’s democratization in 1998.

The sequence of events was as follows. On Thursday, there was a protest in Jakarta focused on issues including corruption. While there were fears of a repeat of last year’s riots, the protest, which was held outside the parliament complex, proceeded peacefully at first.

However, tensions grew throughout the day. A group of disorganized protesters burned trash and tried to break into the parliament area. As dark fell, police moved to disperse protesters with tear gas and water cannons.

Rioting then extended into the neighborhood of Slipi in West Jakarta. There, trucks carrying hundreds of people wearing white headbands and armed with bamboo sticks appeared on the scene. Videos show them assaulting people in the area.

One person, Bambang Setiawan, a 60-year-old mirror vendor, died after being attacked by a group of people as he tried to close his shop.

Reports linked the violence on the streets to a group called Gerakan Rakyat Indonesia Bersatu Jaya (GRIB Jaya), or the United Indonesian People’s Movement. This organization straddles gangsterism and politics, with long-standing ties to Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto.

The group’s leader—Rosario de Marcal, also known as Hercules—is an orphan from Timor-Leste. Recruited to serve in Indonesian militias during the occupation, he credited Prabowo with saving his life on one occasion. He has repeatedly emphasized his personal loyalty to the president. In March, he ostentatiously met the cabinet secretary—a close Prabowo aide—who called him an “old friend.”

GRIB Jaya representatives have admitted that the group was present in West Jakarta at the time. However, they said that GRIB Jaya was there to help maintain order and denied it was behind the assaults. They blamed protesters for all the violence, including the death of Bambang Setiawan.

The violence comes as the current government’s grip on power looks increasingly unsteady.

Prabowo’s approval rating is in freefall. It was at 37 percent in August compared to 75 percent last December, according to a recent poll by Tempo Data Science.

This downturn is widely attributed to dissatisfaction with high prices and limited job opportunities. Prabowo himself has been subject to mockery and personal........

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