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Russia’s War in Ukraine

Understanding the conflict four years on.

The city of Odesa is Ukraine’s economic gateway to the world. Russia does not need to sink every ship entering its ports to blockade Ukraine. It only needs to make the journey too dangerous to attempt.

Since July, renewed attacks on commercial shipping in the Black Sea have done just that, threatening an economic lifeline for Ukraine’s war effort and a major artery of the global food supply. Low water levels in the Danube River and constrained overland routes have left Ukraine with few options.

The city of Odesa is Ukraine’s economic gateway to the world. Russia does not need to sink every ship entering its ports to blockade Ukraine. It only needs to make the journey too dangerous to attempt.

Since July, renewed attacks on commercial shipping in the Black Sea have done just that, threatening an economic lifeline for Ukraine’s war effort and a major artery of the global food supply. Low water levels in the Danube River and constrained overland routes have left Ukraine with few options.

Unless the sea reopens, as much as half of Ukraine’s agricultural exports  could be left at risk. The consequences would hit Ukraine’s economy hard and be felt far beyond its borders, driving up global food prices.

There are welcome efforts to fix this. Ukraine and its partners are negotiating ways to restore safe navigation. But Europe shouldn’t bet solely on another agreement with Russia: The first Black Sea deal, signed in July 2022, worked until Moscow walked away a year later. Any new cease-fire could prove equally fragile.

Europe needs a plan that doesn’t depend on Russian cooperation. Physically defending ships is the obvious answer. Yet as U.S.........

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