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As the world’s two most powerful leaders—U.S. President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping—prepare to meet in Beijing this week, the spotlight is back on the balance of power in the contested Indo-Pacific. Compared with chaotic events elsewhere, the Indo-Pacific appears relatively stable. To be sure, the region has seen its surges of violence in recent months and years: Myanmar’s deadly civil war continues; India and Pakistan clashed again last year, as did Thailand and Cambodia; and Afghanistan and Pakistan are engaged in a low-level war today. Tensions in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea have not abated.

Still, at least for the time being, the Indo-Pacific’s conflicts pale in comparison to those unfolding in Ukraine, Gaza, and the Gulf. As Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told the Munich Security Conference in February, “Asia is probably the only region that maintains overall peace.” Yet peer behind the scenes and the picture that emerges is far from reassuring when it comes to peace and security over the medium and long term. The danger is of misinterpreting the comparative calm as an acceptable new normal—and whether China sees U.S. failure in Iran as an opportunity to press its own claims in the region.

As the world’s two most powerful leaders—U.S. President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping—prepare to meet in Beijing this week, the spotlight is back on the balance of power in the contested Indo-Pacific. Compared with chaotic events elsewhere, the Indo-Pacific appears relatively stable. To be sure, the region has seen its surges of violence in recent months and years: Myanmar’s deadly civil war continues; India and Pakistan clashed again last year, as did Thailand and Cambodia; and Afghanistan and Pakistan are engaged in a low-level war today. Tensions in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea have not abated.

Still, at least for the time being, the Indo-Pacific’s conflicts pale in comparison to those unfolding in Ukraine, Gaza, and the Gulf. As Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told the Munich Security Conference in February, “Asia is probably the only region that maintains overall peace.” Yet peer behind the scenes and the picture that emerges is far from reassuring when it comes to peace and security over the medium and long term. The danger is of misinterpreting the comparative calm as an acceptable new normal—and whether China sees U.S. failure in Iran as an opportunity to press its own claims in the region.

Across the region, increased threat perceptions are spurring growing militarization. China’s growing power and increased assertiveness are partly driving these trends. The tempo of China’s military actions around Taiwan has not reduced; in fact, they are increasingly frequent, large in scope, and prone to push the limits of what is considered safe. The Middle East crisis has bought no respite.

Last December, China conducted its largest military exercises around........

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