Just south of the Strait of Hormuz, marine maps show what looks like a traffic jam, dozens of ships clustered near each other. Beyond the strait, in the Persian Gulf, there’s another snarl of maritime traffic. That’s because the Strait of Hormuz—which 20 percent of the world’s oil and natural gas traverses—is now more dangerous than it’s been for decades. That’s already affecting oil prices and global shipping. Even if the conflict ends tomorrow, the knock-on effects will last for years.

For global shipping, the Strait of Hormuz, the only route out of the Persian Gulf, is as important as the Suez Canal—and the canal’s recent problems offer a taste of what’s to come. In November 2023, Houthi rebels attacked the Galaxy Leader, a ship traversing the Red Sea, which began a series of attacks. By February 2024, container traffic in the Suez Canal had plunged by 82 percent. Suez had recently begun to recover, only to be hit by turbulence from the war in Iran. And now a similar fate has struck the Strait of Hormuz, right on Iran’s doorstep.

Just south of the Strait of Hormuz, marine maps show what looks like a traffic jam, dozens of ships clustered near each other. Beyond the strait, in the Persian Gulf, there’s another snarl of maritime traffic. That’s because the Strait of Hormuz—which 20 percent of the world’s oil and natural gas traverses—is now more dangerous than it’s been for decades. That’s already affecting oil prices and global shipping. Even if the conflict ends tomorrow, the knock-on effects will last for years.

For global shipping, the Strait of Hormuz, the only route out of the Persian Gulf, is as important as the Suez Canal—and the canal’s recent problems offer a taste of what’s to come. In November 2023, Houthi rebels attacked the Galaxy Leader, a ship traversing the Red Sea, which began a series of attacks. By February 2024, container traffic in the Suez Canal had plunged by 82 percent. Suez had........

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