Russia’s War in Ukraine

Understanding the conflict four years on.

In Western debates about how to aid Ukraine—and how the war might end—there is a widespread view that Ukraine cannot and should not defeat Russia outright or fully expel it from its territory. Indeed, few Western politicians openly support Ukraine’s “victory,” instead using vague phrases like helping Kyiv “as long as it takes.” Since Moscow has nuclear weapons, so this line of thinking goes, it losing the war is not only impossible but, in fact, undesirable. To avert a humiliating defeat, Russia might risk Armageddon and use its nuclear arms, and surely Ukrainian territory and sovereignty are not worth that.

Having given up its nuclear weapons in 1994, Ukraine is doomed, in this narration, to accept at least some of Russia’s demands. Many prominent Western voices have promoted some version of this narrative. University of Chicago academic John Mearsheimer, who was adamant before February 2022 that Russia would not attack Ukraine and predicted a Russian victory multiple times since, warned the West not to push “a great power to the brink” because Russian President Vladimir Putin “might then turn to nuclear weapons.”

In Western debates about how to aid Ukraine—and how the war might end—there is a widespread view that Ukraine cannot and should not defeat Russia outright or fully expel it from its territory. Indeed, few Western politicians openly support Ukraine’s “victory,” instead using vague phrases like helping Kyiv “as long as it takes.” Since Moscow has nuclear weapons, so this line of thinking goes, it losing the war is not only impossible but, in fact, undesirable. To avert a humiliating defeat, Russia might risk Armageddon and use its nuclear arms, and surely Ukrainian territory and sovereignty are not worth that.

Having given up its nuclear weapons in 1994, Ukraine is doomed, in this narration, to accept at least some of Russia’s demands. Many prominent Western voices have promoted some version of this narrative. University of Chicago academic John Mearsheimer, who was adamant before February 2022 that Russia would not attack Ukraine and predicted a Russian victory multiple times since, warned the West not to push “a great power to the brink” because Russian President Vladimir Putin “might then turn to nuclear weapons.”

Similarly, Harvard University’s Stephen Walt has warned various times that Russia might resort to nuclear escalation. “There is the possibility it could escalate, particularly if Russia thinks it’s losing and believes that it would be a catastrophic defeat,” he said in 2023. “And that’s something that should worry all of us.” Indeed, the Biden administration slow-walked military deliveries to Ukraine—especially advanced weapons and anything that could be used to strike Russia—because it believed in the threat of nuclear escalation.

However, at no point did Kyiv or its Western partners remotely plan to impose a catastrophic defeat on Russia in the sense of Ukrainian troops marching into Moscow. Ukraine merely aims to liberate its own territory and restore the internationally recognized borders that Russia itself accepted in multiple........

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