Deep skepticism has surrounded U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest attempt to settle the Russia-Ukraine war. Ukraine, backed by Europe, has been clear that it is not prepared to accept terms that amount to surrender, while Russia has given no signal that it will back off its maximalist demands, which would end Ukraine’s existence as a sovereign, independent state. That, skeptics argue, leaves no ground for serious negotiations. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s evident refusal to make any substantive concessions at his talks with Trump’s envoys on December 2 only reinforces their doubts.

But the skeptics are wrong. The time is ripe for a resolution of the conflict in the coming months. The real question is whether the Trump administration can muster the skill, patience, and stamina to drive a diplomatic process to a successful conclusion.

Nearly four years of brutal combat, in which neither side has achieved a strategic breakthrough, has created a paradoxical situation in which both countries lose the longer the war rages on. The best deal each side can achieve is available now, not in six months or later. Ukraine will not gain anything by waiting to negotiate from a hypothetical future position of strength; such a position will not come soon, if ever. Ukrainian leaders have already acknowledged that they cannot liberate by force all the territory Russia has seized. What Ukraine cannot achieve on the battlefield will not be handed to it at the negotiating table. Nor will a stronger Ukraine incline Western countries to provide it with more formidable security guarantees. Western governments have already made it clear that they will not risk war with Russia to defend Ukraine. And the longer Ukraine waits, the more destruction it will have to endure.

Instead of seeking a position of strength, Ukraine urgently needs to settle the conflict, which has devastated the country economically and demographically. The cost of reconstruction over the next decade has been estimated at more than 2.6 times its pre-war GDP of $200 billion. Kyiv will find it increasingly difficult to man the frontlines and has yet to demonstrate that it can halt Russia’s grinding advance. Close to seven million Ukrainians—about one-sixth of the pre-war population—have fled the country; many will never return. In response to the national emergency, the concentration of power in the president’s office and the indefinite postponement of elections nationwide are slowly eroding the foundations of the country’s fragile democracy. An unfolding corruption scandal, which has engulfed senior officials, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s powerful chief of staff, graphically illustrates the corrosive impact of the concentration of power. Each day the war continues, Ukraine’s future looks bleaker.

Russia appears stronger. But it has paid a staggering price—more than one million dead or wounded—for marginal tactical gains. During this year’s offensive, Russia........

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