When U.S. President Donald Trump meets with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in the coming weeks and months—likely starting next week at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in South Korea—the immediate focus will be on how to de-escalate the latest round of export restrictions and tariff threats that the United States and China have wielded against each other. But Trump and Xi are also likely to consider a more ambitious deal to reset bilateral relations, which would seek not only to stabilize economic ties but also to reevaluate geopolitical flash points—above all, Taiwan. Indeed, this week Trump acknowledged to reporters that Taiwan is likely to come up in talks with Xi.

Chinese leaders have made no secret of their desire to assert control over Taiwan, by force if necessary, and they frequently remind their American interlocutors that the island remains the most sensitive and important aspect of U.S.-Chinese relations. Xi is likely to use negotiations to ask the United States to reduce its support for Taiwan, as Beijing believes that this would help China achieve its goal of bringing Taiwan more firmly under its control. Xi could even go so far as to see whether Trump would be willing to fundamentally alter U.S. policy toward Taiwan—by asking the United States to formally oppose Taiwan’s independence, for example—in exchange for lucrative Chinese trade and investment promises. China may be willing to offer more market access to U.S. firms and increased purchases of American goods if Trump is willing to agree to Beijing’s requests.

But accepting such a deal would be a grave mistake for the United States. Even subtle changes to U.S. policy that would shift it closer to Beijing’s position would destabilize the region. A strong Taiwan that is confident in American support is a critical factor in maintaining peace in the region. Trump should not shy away from bringing up Taiwan in his negotiations with Xi, but he should use his leverage to push back on China’s encroachment and reestablish norms in the Taiwan Strait that have proved successful in reducing the possibility of miscalculation. A good deal with Beijing would ensure Taiwan’s safety, not set the island adrift.

Beijing’s demands to the United States on Taiwan are rooted in the claim that it is Taiwan and the United States, not China, that are the principal drivers of regional instability. But in reality, it is China’s increasingly aggressive actions, both militarily and politically, that have inflamed tensions. China has engaged in an unprecedented peacetime military expansion aimed at developing the ability to take Taiwan by force. It has intensified the tempo and scale of military exercises and training in amphibious operations, and it has rapidly expanded its arsenal of nuclear weapons. And it has attempted to isolate Taiwan internationally and intervene in its domestic politics.

Beijing says that its actions were a response to Taiwan’s 2016 election that led to the presidency of Tsai Ing-wen, a member of the Democratic Progressive Party, which takes a firmer line toward Beijing. But China had been increasing its military posturing even before her election. Tsai’s predecessor, Ma Ying-jeou, of the Kuomintang, encouraged closer cross-strait ties and signed two dozen agreements with China on issues such as trade and tourism. Ma even met with Xi in Singapore, which marked the first time that political leaders on both sides of the Taiwan Strait had engaged directly since the Kuomintang fled to Taiwan at the end of the Chinese Civil War in 1949. But despite Ma’s Beijing-friendly positions and this historic rapprochement, China significantly expanded its arsenal of ballistic missiles and its fleet of fighter jets stationed within range of Taiwan during........

© Foreign Affairs