The clean energy transition has entered a new phase. Ambitious net-zero emission pledges made over the past decade have fallen glaringly short of their goals. But the rise of artificial intelligence—and the proliferation of data centers to power it—has created an insatiable demand for power. As a result, more and more countries and corporations are intent on increasing their energy supplies and pivoting to alternative, more reliable sources.

Beijing is currently winning the race to provide such power. Affordable, Chinese-made solar panels form the backbone of renewable energy infrastructure across continents. Chinese-produced turbines are central to wind energy everywhere, and Chinese firms dominate the global battery market. Washington, by contrast, has redoubled its efforts to produce and use pricey fossil fuels—even though most of the world is pivoting away from them.

As a result of these trends, Beijing might soon dominate the global energy system. Yet Washington still has a chance to win this competition. China may lead in solar and wind power and in battery manufacturing, but the United States has the upper hand in two other essential technologies: enhanced geothermal and new nuclear energy. These may indeed be more valuable than solar and wind power because they draw from clean energy sources that do not depend on the weather. Washington, however, will have to coordinate with large technology firms and its many foreign partners if it wants to export its geothermal and nuclear capabilities to the wider world—or indeed power its own AI sector. Otherwise, Beijing will keep pulling ahead.

Global demand for energy is surging. Developing countries are electrifying more and more of their towns and cities, electric vehicles are entering new markets, and data centers are proliferating. The world’s electricity needs are expected to increase by three-quarters over the next 25 years. This demand shock has shifted the impetus for the energy transition. Clean energy may no longer simply be a climate imperative in many countries; it has become the key to economic growth and global technological advancement.

As a result, power generation has become an increasingly important geopolitical issue—one that Beijing is trying to use to its advantage. For more than two decades, China has lavishly supported its burgeoning clean technology sectors by exempting key clean energy inputs from import taxes, requiring a portion of inputs to be sourced domestically, and providing funding to local manufacturers and research institutions for R & D and commercialization. These measures have helped China become the world’s dominant supplier of clean intermittent energy—that is, energy from inconstant and unpredictable sources, such as wind and solar. In 2024, for instance, Chinese companies exported $28 billion worth of solar panels. One of China’s largest solar companies, JinkoSolar, has created more than 20 overseas subsidiaries, which demonstrates China’s growing influence over clean energy infrastructure across the developing world. These policies also laid the groundwork for China’s success in the supply chains needed for clean energy, including the mining and refinement of critical minerals. This, in turn, has given Beijing substantial international leverage. In fact, Chinese officials forced the Trump administration to lift U.S. tariffs on Chinese products by threatening to cut the United States off from critical minerals.

The United States still has its own energy exports—namely, oil and gas. These have undergirded global industrial development since the end of World War II and traditionally endowed Washington with unmatched influence over global energy markets. But such leverage is fading as the fossil fuel industry faces structural limits. Much of the world’s remaining hydrocarbon wealth sits under state-controlled reserves that U.S. firms cannot access. Countries and corporations are also looking into alternative sources of energy, which are becoming cheaper than fossil fuels and are often less vulnerable to blockades like the one now choking off the Strait of Hormuz. The Philippines and Saudi Arabia, for instance, have made clean energy central to their development strategies. Large tech companies have committed to sourcing clean power for their data centers: Google has promised to power its data centers using 100 percent clean energy by 2030, and Meta matches its data centers’ electricity use with renewable energy.

The United States thus needs a new strategy for........

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