A stalemate is the least admired of diplomatic outcomes. It resolves nothing, satisfies no one, and is counted as a victory only by the weaker party, for whom survival is achievement enough. But this is the condition into which the war between Iran and the United States has settled and, after 107 days of hostilities, the one both sides have finally made formal. On June 17, Tehran and Washington signed a deal that reopens the Strait of Hormuz and ends the American naval blockade while doing nothing to address the two countries’ underlying disputes. The deal offers Tehran genuine relief: Washington will immediately waive sanctions on Iranian oil, begin releasing frozen Iranian funds, and commit to a reconstruction package worth at least $300 billion. But every hard question about Iran’s nuclear program, its missile program, and its network of proxies has been punted to an undetermined point in the future.

For U.S. President Donald Trump, this is not a great outcome. When Trump launched the war against Iran in late February, he promised Americans that he would end the country’s nuclear program, dismantle its missile capacities, and perhaps destroy the Islamic Republic itself. He failed on every count. In fact, the war showed that Tehran is more resilient than many analysts expected. The regime endured months of pain—including the assassination of almost its entire top leadership—and emerged intact. By shutting off the Strait of Hormuz and sending energy prices skyward, Tehran even proved that it has a tool it can use to coerce other governments, Washington included. Rising gas costs, after all, are part of what prompted Trump to end the conflict.

Still, this result doesn’t need to be a defeat for the United States. Washington achieved some tactical successes during the war, and it conceded relatively little. On the whole, the deal is mostly a return to the prewar status quo. Yes, American officials still need to manage Iran’s nuclear aspirations, missiles, and proxies. But the United States has been able to do so for the last 20 years without resorting to conflict. It can do so once more.

OVERPROMISE, UNDERDELIVER

From the moment it began bombing Iran, the United States put itself in a difficult position by defining victory in maximalist terms. In announcing the war, Trump declared that Washington would not only eliminate Iran’s nuclear program. It would also “destroy their missiles and raze their missile industry to the ground.” American troops would “annihilate” the Iranian navy and “ensure that the regime’s terrorist proxies can no longer destabilize the region or the world.” He called on Iranians to take to the streets to topple their government. The president, in other words, laid out extraordinarily lofty objectives.

Not surprisingly, Trump failed. The United States and Israel did quickly kill off almost all of Iran’s top officials,........

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