The latest round of back-and-forth military strikes by the United States and Iran, coupled with a new spike in fighting between the Saudis and Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen, highlights why a lasting resolution to this war remains a long way off.

At this point, five months after the fighting began, it’s possible to identify several important takeaways and a few likely long-term implications for Iran, the US and the broader Middle East.

Reopening the Strait of Hormuz Remains the Main Focus

Iran’s ability to control the strait and disrupt global shipping and energy supplies has clearly become the crux of the war. Iran has demonstrated that it’s unlikely to release its grip on the strait anytime soon, and it continues to attack tankers and other ships attempting to cross without Tehran’s permission. Industry experts note that shipping companies expect the strait to remain at least partially closed for several more weeks.

Meanwhile, the Houthi’s recent attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure and threats to close oil traffic in the Red Sea put considerable pressure on the world energy market.

The US lacks a viable military option to force the strait open because of the high risk of major US casualties, and because Iran’s ability to periodically attack commercial shipping with drones, missiles and mines is a major deterrent to already nervous commercial shipping firms.

Recognizing the intractable nature of this problem, Gulf states are already planning to reduce their reliance on the strait, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE likely best positioned to develop new oil shipping routes.

US Military Strikes Exact A Heavy Toll On Iran

As the war grinds on and the media focuses its attention on the global energy supply and price fluctuations, it might be easy to overlook the damage that the US campaign has inflicted on Iran. Since late February, the US (and Israel) have struck thousands of Iranian military targets; devastated Iran’s air force, navy and defense industry; killed dozens of top leaders; and killed an unknown (but undoubtedly large) number of Iranians. In recent weeks, the US campaign has shifted to striking bridges and infrastructure in the south and military sites........

© Forbes