The greater impact of the war in Iran is still settling into the economy, but early indicators aren’t good for most U.S. businesses. The Cboe Volatility Index—viewed as Wall Street’s “fear gauge”—rose nearly 57% over the last week. The index, which considers implied volatility over the next 30 days among S&P 500 companies, is at the highest point since last April, when President Donald Trump announced his so-called reciprocal global tariffs. Markets are opening down across the board this week, as investors and companies brace for the potential of a prolonged conflict that will continue to spike global energy costs.

However, the war isn’t impacting all businesses equally. Forbes’ Christopher Helman writes about Venture Global founders Robert Pender and Mike Sabel—their liquefied natural gas company is well-positioned to profit from attacks on and around the global market leader in Qatar. And in the last week, big global oil companies’ stock have all gained almost 1%—though Shell is performing the best with a more than 4% bump.

Energy costs are one of many risks that companies face today—though it can be difficult to figure out the biggest risks to your company and how to address them. AuditBoard, which has an AI-powered platform to help companies assess and deal with risk, today rebranded as Optro and announced its acquisition of AI governance solution FairNow. I talked to Optro’s CEO Raul Villar Jr. about how executives can assess and deal with risks. An excerpt from our conversation is later in this newsletter.

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The U.S. has been in conflict with Iran for just over a week, but the impact of the war is now hitting Americans’ budgets deeply. Gas prices have spiked nationwide, with the Brent Crude Futures index soaring to $116.71 per barrel early Monday, though it had settled to $93.17 by midday. Since Friday, the price had increased more than 25%, and reached its highest level since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. By Monday, the price at the pump had gone up an average of 50 cents a gallon since the war with Iran started.

President Donald Trump and his allies have so far been dismissive of how the spike in fuel prices will impact the average consumer. He said in a Truth Social post it “is a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, Safety and Peace.” And John Catsimatids, Trump ally and billionaire owner of United Refining Company, told Forbes last week he encourages consumers to stop panicking and “suffer for one month” so the U.S. can “take out the terrorists.”

Consumers likely don’t feel that way. Forbes senior contributor Mayra Rodriguez Valladares writes that many consumers were already under strain, with 46% citing unaffordable prices as a pressure point. Loan delinquencies are up, and a quarter of people using buy-now-pay-later services are drawing the money to buy groceries. And analysts fear that higher oil prices will worsen inflation—in........

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