Business risks are ever present, even in the best of times. But today, it seems the risks are everywhere. Every business ranging from startups to well-established companies to global empires is adapting to quickly changing economic conditions, geopolitical relationships, tariffs and taxes, supply chain issues and government regulations. And all of this was before the war with Iran, which is entering its third week.

Each year, the Casualty Actuarial Society and Society of Actuaries surveys C-suite executives on the emerging risks that will plague them in the coming year. This year’s survey was conducted in January, before the war began, but the breakdown of risks may have come out very similarly if it were done today. A quarter said their top risk was extreme financial volatility, while 19% said it is geopolitical shifts. Among chief risk officers and chief actuaries, that margin grew: 34% said their greatest risk was the economy and 26% said it was geopolitics.

But it will take longer than three weeks to adapt to both long- and short-term changes the war brings to global business, particularly for capital-intensive industries like manufacturing. As manufacturing adapts—both through new facilities in the U.S. and technology to improve productivity—leadership needs to prepare. I talked to Tom Strohl, president of business transformation firm Oliver Wight Americas, about how to do it. An excerpt from our conversation is later in this newsletter.

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As the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee begins its meeting this week, the overwhelming consensus among economists—more than 99% on CME FedWatch—is that baseline interest rates will stay the same. Economic data released over the last week backs that prediction up. In January, annual inflation was 3.1%—an increase from December’s 3%, and above the 2.9% estimated by analysts, according to core consumption expenditures data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This indicator, well above the Fed’s 2% target for inflation, isn’t the only bleak statistic from the federal government last week. The Department of Commerce revised its economic growth estimate for Q4 of 2025, cutting growth in half—down to 0.7% from 1.4%.

All of these statistics showing a slowing economy are from before the war with Iran began, so it’s likely that indicators will keep trending in the wrong direction. The U.S. crude oil benchmark—the West Texas Intermediate—topped $100 per barrel early Monday, as Iran continues to block the vital shipping lane through the Strait of Hormuz. Average gas prices in the U.S. neared $3.70 a gallon on Monday morning, and analysts say they are on track to hit $4 a gallon later this week—even though the U.S. is planning to tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Analysts say gas prices will continue to climb, and likely won’t drop back to pre-war levels even under the best circumstances until late this year because of seasonal factors.

High gas prices impact the entire economy—from consumers who had already been feeling financially strained to businesses paying........

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