A cluster of key economic indicators is signaling that inflation pressures may be building again — even as consumers hope for relief. Recently, four metrics have suggested that everything is getting more expensive and that investors are betting on increased inflation in the future.

Import Costs Are Surging Faster Than Expected

The U.S. economy depends on consumer spending, which is about 69% of gross domestic product. But the goods that businesses create or sell depend on imports. That’s not saying all goods are made overseas. Many are, though, and the costs are rising. according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

U.S. import prices were up 1.3% in February after a 0.6% increase in January, according to the BLS import price index. That was the largest month-over-month increase since the index jumped 2.9% in March 2022. It’s a record level, as the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis graph shows below.

Because the prices are indexed for an apples-to-apples comparison, you can’t even take solace in the thought that inflation is the driving factor. These are actual comparable prices. Furthermore, they don’t include food or fuels, with the latter promising a big impact on overall import prices when the increase hits the March numbers report. And as KPMG Chief Economist Diane Swonk reminded, import prices are based on costs. Tariffs are taxes charged in the U.S., based on the value of the imported goods.

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