A cluster of key economic indicators is signaling that inflation pressures may be building again — even as consumers hope for relief. Recently, four metrics have suggested that everything is getting more expensive and that investors are betting on increased inflation in the future.

Import Costs Are Surging Faster Than Expected

The U.S. economy depends on consumer spending, which is about 69% of gross domestic product. But the goods that businesses create or sell depend on imports. That’s not saying all goods are made overseas. Many are, though, and the costs are rising. according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

U.S. import prices were up 1.3% in February after a 0.6% increase in January, according to the BLS import price index. That was the largest month-over-month increase since the index jumped 2.9% in March 2022. It’s a record level, as the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis graph shows below.

Because the prices are indexed for an apples-to-apples comparison, you can’t even take solace in the thought that inflation is the driving factor. These are actual comparable prices. Furthermore, they don’t include food or fuels, with the latter promising a big impact on overall import prices when the increase hits the March numbers report. And as KPMG Chief Economist Diane Swonk reminded, import prices are based on costs. Tariffs are taxes charged in the U.S., based on the value of the imported goods.

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In February, fuel import costs dropped 10.6% year over year. That’s the reason annual changes in import prices were also up only 1.3%. Nonfuel imports jumped 2.5% between February 2025 and February 2026.

“There is some very worrisome inflation in the pipeline,” Swonk wrote, pointing to the “hottest numbers since [the] searing inflation of 2022.”

Producer Prices Add Another Layer Of Pressure

Import prices increase costs directly, as goods that businesses and individuals buy, and indirectly as components of products. A second recent concern is the Producer Price Index, the industry version of inflation, for February 2026, which was up 0.7% month over month, and 3.4% year over year.

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The single number is challenging to interpret because it covers many industries and states of completion of products. Below, again from the St. Louis Fed, is a graph of final demand, meaning an average of all the goods, services and construction sold to final buyers, which includes consumers, businesses, governments and exports.

The graph shows the year-over-year changes since January 2011. The huge spike between January 2021 and January 2023 was a pandemic result. Aside from that period, the new numbers are the second-highest, only after January 2025.

PPI numbers also don’t directly include tariffs because producers don’t treat them as revenue, as BLS explains. However, pricing decisions respond to the input costs, so they can include them indirectly.

Oil Prices Stay High And Keep Businesses On Edge

Import costs and PPI both suggest that increasing inflation may be on its way. There is no unified oil price in the world. Prices are based on many factors, including where the oil was produced, conditions surrounding transport, geopolitical instabilities, buyers’ perceptions of risk, transportation and insurance expenses, market manipulations by large producers, and industry constraints like geographically limited ability to store oil.

The impact of higher oil prices on businesses and consumers is significant, and the numbers remain elevated. This is an area where it’s also difficult to see where things are headed because of the nature of how markets react.

The real power in oil pricing belongs to the buyers who decide what a barrel of oil is worth to them at a given time and place. Changes trickle down to businesses and consumers who need specific types of fuel like gasoline, diesel, or fuel oil, and who need the products and services that depend indirectly on energy costs.

Those traders, being human and trained to react to any news that might affect future prices, look for any signs. The Trump administration has offered messaging that has made it sound as though it was successful and is winding down its military operation, which it might be. Iran has turned down the U.S. cease-fire conditions, according to The New York Times.

Crude prices are still high, with WTI crude at $91 a barrel and Brent crude at $102.80. They were respectively about $66 and $71 in February. The OPEC average basket is $145.24; in February, it was about $70.

What happens going forward is unclear. A quick resolution and return to lower prices seem unlikely.

Bond Markets Signal That Inflation Fears Are Rising

The fourth factor to consider at the moment is the yield on the 10-year Treasury note, a type of bond. This federal debt instrument is considered a predictor of what might happen with the economy.

Prices of bonds move inversely to their yields. Investors buy Treasury bonds if they worry about economic conditions and want a traditionally “safe” place for money. When they buy, prices go up and yields go down.

When the investors are worried that inflation will rise and want to ensure themselves of a better return on their money, the prices drop and the yields go up, which has been happening recently.

Along with rising prices, it’s another potential sign of a coming rise in inflation. As Swonk said, just talking about import prices, “This doesn’t bode well for inflation and more importantly, the level of prices relative to incomes.”

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