Airlines say ticket prices could stay high even if jet fuel costs fall. Here’s why

Volatility in fuel prices has been a challenge for airlines since the start of the Iran war.

An aircraft lands at Philadelphia International Airport in Philadelphia, Nov. 6, 2025. [Photo: Matt Rourke/AP Photo]

Travelers could be stuck paying high airfares even if oil and jet fuel prices fall, major U.S. airlines and industry analysts say.The price of jet fuel shot up after the Iran war began and retreated sharply in the spring before surging again as the summer went on. Such fluctuations make it harder for airlines to plan ahead and give them a reason to be cautious about lowering ticket prices, according to Brett House, an economist who teaches at Columbia Business School.Jet fuel has risen even faster than oil during the war, reflecting both higher crude prices and tight supplies of the refined fuel that is one of airlines’ largest operating expenses. Carriers cut some less profitable flights and raised fares and baggage fees, although major U.S. airlines said higher passenger revenue initially covered only part of their soaring fuel costs.Airfares haven’t moved in lockstep with fuel prices, however. The Argus U.S. Jet Fuel Index plunged from an early April peak of $4.88 a gallon to a wartime low of $2.70 in June, but average fares remained elevated.The average fare, not including optional fees for services such as checked bags and seat selection, rose from $405 in the last three months of 2025 to $428 in the first quarter of this year and to $436 in the April-June period, according to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics.Part of the disconnect between fuel prices and airfares comes down to timing, House said.........

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